War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and escalated into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for interfering with or criticising the election under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".