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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd