🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still