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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."